World War III? Probably Not And This Is Why.

With the conflict in Ukraine and the very real prospect of China making moves to take over Taiwan, people seem to believe that this is going to be the start to World War III (#WWIII is trending on Twitter and other social media).

WWIII is very unlikely to occur over these two events. The primary world powers that are opposed to both Russian and Chinese aggression have not been showing global leadership or an appetite for military interventions and conflict. The political leaders have already stated that military force in Ukraine is not being considered.

Russian aggression has so far been met with laughable consequence and action from global leaders. Most of the sanctions put in place can be easily overcome by Russia’s position as a fairly self-reliant country, rich in resources, with strong cooperations and alliances with other sanctioned and isolated countries, and most importantly its alliance with China. Short of internal revolt or military actions, from Ukrainian allied countries, Russia is not going to give up on Ukraine. We have seen this with Russia’s aggressions in the past.

In regard to China, with how the world is reacting to the Russian aggression in Ukraine considered and how no country lifting a finger when China heavily restricted citizens’ rights in Hong Kong, if China follows with attacking Taiwan, it is extremely unlikely that the consequences will be much different or severe as we have seen used against Russia. Most countries don't even consider Taiwan as an independent county from China. Unlike Ukraine being globally recognized as an independent country. The global economy has more to lose by going toe-to-toe with China. And, there is no powerful nation with the appetite for war, especially with China. Ultimately Taiwan will be on its own and China will gain that island with minimal consequence or rebuke, with most everyone saying that it is just a reunification that was going to happen eventually anyways.

This ultimately means Russia will get sanctioned for Ukraine, but Putin will get what he wants (painfully). China will move on Taiwan and will only get a strongly worded rebuke from world governments and the UN, and maybe a few sanctions, even these will be quietly lifted within a few years for the sake of diplomacy and appeasement. For the most part; life will go on and WWIII will not occur.